All Eyes on 3 November: What the Next RBA Decision Means for Property

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board meets on 2 and 3 November, with its decision due at 2.30pm AEDT on Tuesday 3 November. It is the most closely watched meeting of the year for property owners and buyers, coming after a run of increases that has lifted the cash rate from 3.60 per cent at the start of 2026 to 4.60 per cent.

How we got here

The Board raised rates in February, March and May, held at 4.35 per cent in June and August, then lifted again by 25 basis points on 29 September. The September decision was unanimous.

In its September statement the Board said upside risks to inflation had materialised, pointing to elevated global energy prices and continuing domestic capacity pressures, and judged that further tightening of financial conditions was warranted. It also observed that housing prices had fallen in most capital cities and that new housing loans had declined noticeably.

The inflation test on 28 October

The key input before the meeting is the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Consumer Price Index for September, which includes the full September-quarter figures, due on 28 October. The most recent monthly reading showed headline inflation of 4.0 per cent over the year to August, up from 3.5 per cent in July, with the trimmed mean steady at 3.6 per cent. Both sit well above the RBA's 2 to 3 per cent target band.

Housing was a major contributor. The ABS reported that housing costs rose 5.7 per cent over the year, led by a 13.2 per cent jump in electricity prices, while rents rose 3.6 per cent and new dwelling costs 5.4 per cent.

What to watch

Cotality's October index report flagged the possibility of another rise in November as a factor weighing on household confidence. Whatever the Board decides, the accompanying statement will be read closely for signals on whether the tightening cycle is close to its end. For buyers, pre-approval terms and serviceability buffers are worth reviewing ahead of the decision; for owners on variable loans, a further rise would typically flow through to repayments within weeks.